Tuesday, May 31, 2005

Forrester: Winners/Losers In Web Content Management Market

US

Forrester: The explosion of company Web sites as a primary means of delivering content and interacting with customers, partners, and employees has caused an increase in demand for Web content management (WCM) technology that can not only streamline Web content production and publishing processes but also provide personalization to users across multiple sites. 84 percent of enterprises plan to increase their WCM deployments to consolidate rogue sites and departmental intranets. We are experiencing renewed interest in WCM as organizations look to consolidate Web sites and support new, Web-based growth initiatives. WCM is not new, and a successful implementation depends greatly on how well any product matches the diverse needs of content owners, contributors, site managers, and IT in support of the organization's external and internal site initiatives.

WCM vendors demonstrated clear differentiation in their support of external site initiatives, and a small vendor from Europe, Tridion, showcased the greatest differentiation. The final evaluation showed that:

  • FatWire, Tridion, and Vignette demonstrated clear product strength, offering strong dynamic content delivery and site and content personalization support.

  • Enterprise content management (ECM) suite vendors, Interwoven and Stellent, provided breadth through comprehensive WCM products that not only address the management and publishing of content but also help deliver dynamic, personalized user experiences.

  • EMC/documentum, Microsoft, Percussion, and RedDot offered products that support an organization's external site initiatives, but lacked breadth and/or depth in areas that impact their external site support.

Internal Sites: WCM vendors showcased better in support of internal site initiatives, due to their stronger content repository services and content management administration capabilities. The final evaluation showed that:

  • EMC/documentum, Interwoven, and Stellent led the way, demonstrating strength in content repository services, taxonomy management, metadata discovery, and multisite management support.

  • Tridion, Percussion, and RedDot fared well, receiving high marks in content management usability, strong in-context editing, and multisite management capabilities, but scored lower in content repositories and metadata discovery capabilities.

  • FatWire, Vignette, and Microsoft offered strong site and content personalization capabilities but lacked strong content repository services, impacted primarily by lack of support for WebDAV for content contribution and limited workflow support.

Web Content Management, Q1 2005, Web Content Management Adoption in 2005 . Publ 20050531 Content Management?

Worldwide network security appliance and software Up 5% in 1Q05

Worldwide

Network Security Market Up 5% in 1Q05

Infonetics Research: Worldwide network security appliance and software revenue was up 5% between the last quarter of 2004 and the first quarter of 2005, and is forecast to grow 27% to $1.3 billion in the first quarter of 2006. Total annual revenue is expected to grow to $6.5 billion by 2008. Forecast for 1Q05 network security appliance and software revenue was within 1% of actual revenue. This was a fairly quiet quarter overall, with Cisco's big jump in hardware secure router revenue clocking in as the only major event of the quarter. The network security market will grow at a 15% compound annual growth rate between 2004 and 2008. This strong growth is being driven by the many new viruses, malware, and targeted attacks that surface every day, compelling companies of all sizes to invest in security. Many areas in the market will continue single and double-digit quarterly growth over the next few years. 1Q05 Market Highlights :

  • Cisco is the worldwide leader in revenue market share in the overall network security appliance and software market, a position they have more or less maintained since 2002

  • Check Point is second in worldwide revenue share; Juniper is close behind in third

  • Enterasys, ISS, McAfee, Nokia, Nortel, SonicWALL, and Symantec are strong second-tier players, with significant revenue market share across a number of categories

  • VPN and firewall appliances and software make up the majority of revenue (78% in 1Q05), with IDS/IPS second at 14%, and gateway antivirus third at 8%

  • North America accounts for 45% of network security appliances and software revenue, EMEA for 29%, Asia Pacific for 21%, and CALA for 5%

Quarterly worldwide market share and forecast service, Network Security Appliances and Software Publ 20050531

Portables Continue to Fly Off the Shelf in Central and Eastern Europe in 1Q05

Eastern Europe Russia Poland Ukraine

IDC: The PC market of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) again expanded in 1Q05, with shipments reaching 2.57 million units, up 23.0% compared to the same period the previous year. First-quarter PC Tracker, unit shipments of notebooks surged by 68.6% over the same period last year. By contrast, desktop shipments rose a more modest but still healthy 15.3%, while x86 server shipments jumped 12.3%. Desktops led the market in overall number, outselling portables by 1.8 to 1, largely because of lower prices and sales packages that bundled desktops with various peripherals, like printers, scanners, speakers, and DVD drives.

Although there was growth across the region, the lack of large projects in some of the more mature markets dampened growth as a whole. This means the retail sector carried the weight of the market and that countries with a thriving retail channel exhibited the strongest gains.

Russia was again the largest single country market for PCs in CEE in 1Q05. Poland was second and Ukraine was third. Together, these markets represented almost 72% of PC shipments in CEE in the first quarter of this year. When looking exclusively at the portables market, the ranking was Russia, Poland, and then Czech Republic, where shipments were more than twice that of those in Ukraine. In terms of uptake per person. Slovenia is leaving the other countries in the dust. Its average of nearly 17 PCs per 1,000 people is significantly larger than the 11.3 for the Czech Republic in second and the less than 9.3 for Croatia in third."

IDC's delivers timely intelligence and an inclusive database that details changes and trends in the highly competitive CEE (Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine, and Rest of CEE) PC markets. The tracker enables users to view data by volume, value, country, year, quarter, vendor, brand, processor brand, and channel. It provides comprehensive analysis of the region's PC markets. It also includes easy-to-read summaries that break down volume and value by form factor, vendor, and end-user segment. PC Quarterly Tracker Publ 20050531

Come In, WiMAX: Wider Options May Spur Indoor

global ABI Research : Conventional wisdom says that until the advent of 802.16e mobile WiMAX systems — still some time in the future — the wireless broadband standard will be more or less confined to the great outdoors. Some "near-outdoor" systems involving window-mounted receivers may be feasible, but for practical purposes WiMAX is considered an outdoor last-mile replacement technology. However, analysts say that there are optional specifications built into the 802.16 standard which can boost the sensitivity of receiving equipment to the extent of making WiMAX PC cards and built-in receivers a practical proposition for laptops, PDAs and other portable devices. Generally these optional specifications have not been implemented by the largest vendors of WiMAX equipment. However at least two smaller companies — TeleCIS and Sequans — have been designing their chipsets to implement these under-utilized options in the standard.

There may be WiMAX PC cards on the market earlier than many observers have expected. These will result from superior chipsets permitting the use of WiMAX in laptops and similar devices in homes and offices within the reach of fixed WiMAX transmissions. You will not have full mobility as you will with 802.16e, but you will have some portability. Companies involved with WiMAX, and some companies that will consciously avoid WiMAX, are profiled, and the study includes forecasts for subscribers, equipment, revenues and more.WiMAX/802.16: Opportunities for High Speed Wireless Data in Enterprise, SOHO, Residential and Portable (802.16e) Markets Publ 20050531 Wimax ?

Streaming Media 2004 - 2007: Market Development and User Data Analysis

US Research and Markets: Streaming Media (Internet Radio and video) exhibited strong growth in 2004, with both Internet-only and major offline brands capturing share in this growing on-demand broadcast segment. Video streams rose by 80.7% in 2004 to 14.2 billion served. The growth in video streams served was powered by: -- Increased broadband connection penetration at the residential level; -- The continued popularity of streaming media in office/work-related environments; -- More ad-supported broadband content, media players that queue up files for auto-play (Yahoo Launch, MSN Video, MSNBCNews, ESPN.com and others), and; -- Increasing video views per unique user per month associated with broadband users who consume more of the Internet, particularly multimedia Internet. Video streams are forecast to grow by 48% in 2005 to over 21 billion served. Broadband streams (100 Kbps and above) made up 79.3% of total streams served in 2004. Narrowband video streams made up 20.7% of total streams served, largely driven by AOL, which continues to make content libraries available at narrowband bit rates. Aggregate tuning hours (ATH) for the top ten Internet radio sites and networks rose by 75.9% in 2004 per month, to 178.9 million hours. ATH per month grew by 53.2% in 2003 compared to 2002, a year which saw significant contraction in the market due to the advertising slowdown and regulatory uncertainly with regard to copyright fees for re- broadcasting content. Streaming Media 2004 - 2007 Publ 20050531

SMS Continues To Lead Mobile Messaging Market

global

In-Stat The global messaging market continues to be important to mobile carriers, with the bulk of the revenues continuing to come from Short Message Service (SMS) text messaging. The greatest growth in mobile messaging, however, will come from wireless instant messaging, which, driven by corporate users, is expected to increase revenues six-fold between 2007 and 2009, the high tech market research firm says.Revenue from SMS is leveling off and will decline in the future due to less price elasticity resulting from mature competition in developed regions. Margins, however, remain good for most carriers due to the inherent profitability of SMS.

  • Multimedia Message Service (MMS), which delivers pictures, sound clips and video, is expected to show nearly 50% compound annual growth rate through 2009.

  • The major barrier to widespread consumer adoption of wireless instant messaging will be development of industry standards.

  • Enhanced Message Service (EMS) has virtually disappeared as a viable technology.

Mobile Messaging: More Products, More Growth Publ Publ 20050531 SMS?

79 Percent of Prepaid Wireless Users will be MVNO Customers by 2009

US

ATLANTIC-ACM: The prepaid wireless industry will grow at a compound annual growth rate in excess of 20 percent. Much of this growth will come in the form of hybrid plans, which will account for more than two-thirds of industry revenues by 2009. (Hybrid plans are prepaid plans functioning with automatic replenishment facilitated via credit cards or checking accounts for monthly recurring payments.) However, below the surface-level revenue division between hybrid and pay-as-you-go plans, much of the industry’s revenue growth will be driven by Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs).

We’re really at the breakaway point for MVNOs right now. The prepaid industry has historically been the domain of niche marketers that have the ability to meet the needs of very specific types of customers. History is repeating itself as niche-oriented MVNOs are overtaking traditional providers for the dominant industry position.

Last year, MVNOs caught up with traditional, facilities-based wireless carriers in total prepaid subscribers as each provider type served approximately 11.1 million subscribers. This year, MVNOs will serve 7.7 million more prepaid subscribers than traditional carriers as they capture growth and existing market share from traditional players. 2009, MVNOs will account for nearly four of every five prepaid wireless subscribers.

Prepaid Insights 2005-2009: Sizing Up Markets, Opportunities and Players Publ 20050531

Monday, May 30, 2005

Despite Intense Competition, System Management Software in Asia/Pacific Maintains a Healthy Momentum

Asia (not Japan) Australia, Korea, Hong Kong, TaiwanSingapore (China), India, Malaysia,Thailand;

IDC:Revenue growth for system management software (SMS) remained healthy despite the intense price competition and consolidation activities among major players. The SMS market at US$386.4 million in 2004, and forecasts revenue to grow from US$ 431.9 million in 2005 to US$664.4 million in 2009, a compound annual growth rate of 11.4%. Graph

Sserver consolidation projects in the mature IT economies of Australia, Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore; the continued deployment of business applications in the manufacturing, financial services, and telecommunications sectors in the emerging economies of PRC (China), India, Malaysia and Thailand; and compliance-related investments fueled demand for SMS in the region. The chart shows Australia and Korea as the largest markets for SMS but the fastest growing markets are India and PRC, where IDC predicts spending in SMS software to overtake Korea in 2007." Asia/Pacific System Management Software Forecast and Analysis 2005-2009 Forecast Publ 20050530

Friday, May 27, 2005

RFID market to exceed $6 billion worldwide by 2010

Global North America Europe Middle EastAfrica

Datamonitor: RFID technology including hardware, software and services across all verticals, will be $6.1bn market by 2010, three times that of today. 43% of revenues will be derived from North America, 33% from Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) and 21% from Asia Pacific (APAC). Central and Latin America will account for 3% of global expenditure ($185m). With EPCGlobal acting as an industry led standards body, and cheaper hardware becoming available, the manufacturing industry is starting to re-evaluate its position on RFID technology. Previously, the associated high cost and lack of internationally accepted standards saw many put strategies on the backburner.

The recent mandates being issued to manufacturers by Wal-Mart and the US Department of Defense, have pushed RFID technology into the minds of many businesses. In the U.S, pharmaceutical manufacturers are also moving to respond to mandates issued by the US Food and Drug Administration. In Japan Toyota and other manufacturers' cutting edge RFID applications to manufacturing processes, along with radical retail stores, has given it good profile. In Europe, the relatively early low-level adoption by multiple companies like Tesco (UK) and Metro (Germany) has seen a greater interest develop in their respective countries.

The cost of RFID tags, which accounted for 25% of total global RFID expenditure in 2004, was a significant inhibitor to the uptake of RFID. However, by 2010, the RFID tag share of the total market will decrease to 19%, reflecting a lower tag price due to economies of scale experienced by RFID chip manufacturers, in turn generated by a higher demand and resultant output.

Expenditure on Readers, which in 2004 represented 29% of global hardware spend, is expected to grow to 32% of hardware expenditure by 2010 as RFID networks become more widespread and the number of features onboard each reader grows.

RFID middleware, the layer of software between the RFID readers and enterprise applications, such as enterprise resource planning (ERP), will be the key to unlocking financial, process and efficiency benefits from RFID deployments.

"RFID is all about making the data work for you. Managing the information flowing from RFID tags and readers into a cohesive format that integrates with enterprise applications is a challenge that many software vendors such as SAP, Oracle and Vizional are focussing on.

In terms of geographic markets, Germany and the UK are expected to be the dominant European countries for RFID from 2004 - 2010 and, likely, into the future. In APAC, Japan's historic strength in manufacturing and its upbeat approach to manufacturing and the use of technology therein means it will be a key country in the adoption of RFID. While it's market share is currently twice that of China, after 2009 the economic giant will take over with a superior share of 33% compared to Japan's 28%, equating to an extra $57m revenue opportunity.

In terms of manufacturing sectors, the three manufacturing industries that will drive RFID expenditure over the next three years are pharmaceutical, consumer packaged goods (CPG) and automotive.

We're only just leaving an early-adopter phase in RFID technology's lifecycle. Most manufacturing RFID projects in 2005 will be pilots where an implementation is limited to one location, production line or single product type. Once manufacturers are able to recognise a return on investment (ROI) generated by the data flowing from the plant floor, we'll start to see RFID adoption grow at a faster rate. By the second half of 2006, this trend will start to see more companies expanding on their initial pilots resulting in total expenditure for the year reaching a touch over $3bn worldwide.

RFID in Manufacturing: The race to radio-tag is heating up in manufacturing Publ 20050527

Thursday, May 26, 2005

RUSH TO MARKET IN NANOSENSORS, BUT MOST AREN’T "NANO"

Lux Research: True nano-enabled sensors are rare; while size-dependent properties create dramatically improved devices, "good enough" existing alternatives limit opportunity . Nanosensors have been pushed forward as a key early nanotechnology application, with boosters projecting billions of dollars in market opportunity. Sensors happen to be among the simplest electronic devices one can make from nanomaterials, yielding an abundance of development activity. But of 66 companies claiming to offer nanosensors, only 13 actually harness the size-dependent properties of nanomaterials. Nanosensors as devices that employ nanomaterials, exploiting novel size-dependent properties, to detect gases, chemicals, biological agents, electric fields, light, heat, or other targets. Plenty of investment has gone into nanosensor companies; in March, for example, Nanomix received $16 million in Series C funding, primarily to move a disposable respiratory sensor to market. Homeland security spending has served as a potent catalyst: the $41 billion U.S. homeland security budget – and the creation of centers like MIT’s Institute for Soldier Nanotechnologies, a $50 million research collaboration with the U.S. Army – has convinced entrepreneurs that a large addressable market lies on the other side of a working nanosensor. Nanosensors deliver sensitivity orders of magnitude better than conventional devices,. But today’s nanosensors aren’t ready for prime time. Until sample handling and selectivity issues are resolved, nanosensors can be deployed only under highly controlled conditions. Plus, costs are high and unlikely to fall in the near term. The mass markets that could deliver enough volume to bring prices down won’t adopt until sensors are cheaper, and the sensors won’t be cheaper until they’re produced in greater volume. Thus nanosensor players are aiming at military projects, where price is less of an issue, to break the cycle."

For the report, Lux Research constructed an assessment tool categorizing 66 companies identified as offering nanosensors.

  1. • Companies are developing nanosensor products based on proof-of-concept tests performed in tightly controlled lab settings. Under these conditions, research scientists often carefully deliver sample material to their nanosensors, which dutifully detect those materials at incredible levels of sensitivity down to parts per billion. This proof of concept says little about real-world utility.

  2. • Breakthrough decreases in nanomaterial costs required to make nanosensors competitive with existing technology lie two to five years away – a long time for a venture-backed start-up.

  3. • Nanosensors’ performance advantages of fast response time, sensitivity, and portability may not be able to displace "good-enough" technologies in existing applications, but they may succeed at putting sensors in new applications that conventional sensors can’t touch.

  4. • The best prospects for nanosensor start-ups lie in finding new markets for sensors uniquely enabled by nanotechnology, for example, where conventional sensors are too large, require too much power, or can’t go wireless.

Putting the ‘Nano’ in Nanosensors. Publ 20050526

Secure Router Shipments Jump 19% in 1Q05

Global North Ameria EMEA, Asia Pacific, CALA

Infonetics Research : Demand for enterprise routers, particularly secure routers, remains high even as revenue continues to slip quarter-over-quarter across most enterprise router categories due to ongoing price pressure

Worldwide enterprise router revenue totaled $750 million in 1Q05, down 9% from 4Q04, and 20% lower than a year ago, while unit shipments increased 4%. This trend is expected to continue, with unit shipments growing to 1.9 million in 2008. The increase in overall unit shipments comes mostly from the burgeoning secure enterprise router segment, which jumped 19% to 53,000 units between 4Q04 and 1Q05, while revenue dipped 3% to $96.4 million. Meanwhile, the standard enterprise router segment eked out a mere 1% unit shipment increase while revenue dropped 9% to $653 million in 1Q05. Unit revenue has been dropping faster in the standard portion of the market, so many vendors are eyeing the more lucrative secure router segment.

Overall demand for routers was solid in the first quarter, as evidenced by the 4% sequential increase in unit shipments, but vendors saw significant pricing pressure, and revenue per unit dropped almost across the board,. The 11% revenue-per-unit decrease at Cisco had the most profound effect on the market.

1Q05 Market Highlights

  • Cisco continues to lead the worldwide enterprise router market by a wide margin, capturing the majority of both revenue and unit market share

  • Vanguard is second for revenue, Allied Telesyn is second in unit shipments

  • High-end routers make up 50% of worldwide enterprise router revenue, mid-range routers make up 47%, and low-end/SOHO routers make up 2%

  • Secure routers now make up 13% of worldwide revenue, up 1% from 4Q04, and will grow to 27% of the market by 2008

  • 41% of total enterprise router revenue was from North America, 36% from EMEA, 19% from Asia Pacific, and 3% from CALA

Enterprise Routers quarterly worldwide market share and forecast report Publ 20050526

 

Single-Digit CRM Growth in Western Europe

Europe Germany, Italy France IDC: The Western European CRM applications market will grow less than 5% annually. The CRM market is maturing rapidly and IDC does not expect double-digit growth to occur in the coming years. However, you can still find pockets of high growth in Western Europe, such as hosted CRM, customer analytics, customer self-service, and vertical CRM applications. Certain industries, in particular financial services, telecommunications, and public sector, have enormous potential for replacing custom-developed CRM applications with packaged software.

CRM is a top priority for 2005 for many Western European companies. After several years of cost cutting and bottom-line focus, most European companies are currently transitioning to a top-line and growth focus. However, investments are held back by slow economic growth in key Western European markets, such as Germany, Italy, and France. Price pressures from new entrants and high-end vendors going downmarket will inhibit growth at the market level.Western European CRM Applications Forecast, 2005–2009 Publ 200505 CRM?

NAND Grew Faster than Any Other Semiconductor Market in 200


global
Semico Research: NAND was the fastest-growing of any semiconductor market in 2004. 
Revenues jumped a whopping 80% to $7.2 billion. Even so, NAND continued to trail NOR, 
which ended 2004 at $9.1 billion. These two flash technologies lead the nonvolatile market,
 combining to account for 91% of all nonvolatile memory revenues. ROM, EPROM, and 
EEPROM revenues each accounted for less than $1 billion in revenues.
Samsung led the pack in total nonvolatile as well as in NAND, owing to its dominant 
54% share of NAND revenues. This company was able to take $2 billion of the $3.2 billion
 growth in 2004’s NAND market. Spansion displaced Intel for leadership in NOR, despite 
Spansion’s eroding share toward the end of the year. The top spots in ROM, EPROM, 
and EEPROM were taken by Macronix, Oki, and Atmel, respectively. It is just astounding
 how NAND technology continues to grow, even in a year where it suffered a price collapse. 
Although there were only eight NAND suppliers in 2004, their dedication to satisfy the 
incredible hunger of the consumer markets for this new technology supported this 
stounding level of growth. The size of the NAND market came as something of a surprise 
since WSTS reported lower revenues for the same year of only $6.5 billion. 

Storage Area Network Fibre Channel Market Grows 10 Percent in First Quarter 2005 Compared to Prior Year Period

US

Dell’Oro Group:The storage area network (SAN) fibre channel market grew 10 percent in the first quarter 2005 over the year ago period. During this same period, port shipments grew 38 percent, further indicating healthy demand from companies to network their storage resources. The annual growth was equally supported by sales in both the SAN switch and host bus adapter segments of the market.

The report also indicates that market shares shifted during first quarter 2005. In the modular switch market segment, Cisco has continued its string of sequential quarterly revenue growth as customers continue to adopt its MDS 9500. During the quarter, some of the other major vendors in this segment were plagued with one-time issues, such as consumers delaying purchasing decisions in light of uncertainty regarding product plans for McDATA, the leading vendor in this segment, and CNT due to their pending merger.

SAN Quarterly Report Publ 20050526 SAN Storage Area Network?

Storage Area Network Fibre Channel Market Grows 10 Percent in First Quarter 2005 Compared to Prior Year Period

US

Dell’Oro Group:The storage area network (SAN) fibre channel market grew 10 percent in the first quarter 2005 over the year ago period. During this same period, port shipments grew 38 percent, further indicating healthy demand from companies to network their storage resources. The annual growth was equally supported by sales in both the SAN switch and host bus adapter segments of the market.

The report also indicates that market shares shifted during first quarter 2005. In the modular switch market segment, Cisco has continued its string of sequential quarterly revenue growth as customers continue to adopt its MDS 9500. During the quarter, some of the other major vendors in this segment were plagued with one-time issues, such as consumers delaying purchasing decisions in light of uncertainty regarding product plans for McDATA, the leading vendor in this segment, and CNT due to their pending merger.

SAN Quarterly Report Publ 20050526

True nano-enabled sensors are rare



Lux Research: Nanosensors have been pushed forward 
as a key early nanotechnology application, with boosters projecting billions
of dollars in market opportunity. Sensors happen to be among the simplest
electronic devices one can make from nanomaterials, yielding an abundance of
development activity.  But of 66 companies claiming to offer nanosensors, only
13 actually harness the size-dependent properties of nanomaterials, according
to a new report from entitled.
   Lux Research defines nanosensors as devices that employ nanomaterials,
exploiting novel size-dependent properties, to detect gases, chemicals,
biological agents, electric fields, light, heat, or other targets. Plenty of
investment has gone into nanosensor companies; in March, for example, Nanomix
received $16 million in Series C funding, primarily to move a disposable
respiratory sensor to market. Homeland security spending has served as a
potent catalyst: the $41 billion U.S. homeland security budget -- and the
creation of centers like MIT's Institute for Soldier Nanotechnologies, a $50
million research collaboration with the U.S. Army -- has convinced
entrepreneurs that a large addressable market lies on the other side of a
working nanosensor.
   Nanosensors deliver sensitivity orders of magnitude better than
conventional devices. Buttoday's nanosensors aren't ready for prime time. Until sample handling and
selectivity issues are resolved, nanosensors can be deployed only under highly
controlled conditions. Plus, costs are high and unlikely to fall in the near
term. The mass markets that could deliver enough volume to bring prices down
won't adopt until sensors are cheaper, and the sensors won't be cheaper until
they're produced in greater volume. Thus nanosensor players are aiming at
military projects, where price is less of an issue, to break the cycle.    

Putting the 'Nano' in Nanosensors Publ 20050526

Home Control Systems Interest Mass-M

arket Consumers

US Diffusion Group: More than one-half of U.S. Internet households are to varying degrees interested in purchasing a home control system (HCS) to automate the control of home lighting, room temperature and security systems if the price of the solution is less than $200. Innovations in automation technology, combined with the diffusion of home networks, have helped to bring the cost of home control functionality down to a level where consumers are more likely to be interested in connecting and automating systems in their homes.

The cost to purchase and install home control solutions has historically been prohibitive to mainstream consumers, often costing several thousand dollars for an entry-level package. With recent HCS innovations, however, this is no longer the case. The most pressing challenge facing the home control industry today is not one of innovation or technology, but one of pricing: that is, reducing the cost of such systems to a point where a critical mass of consumers will actually purchase the products. Although consumer interest in HCS is greatest at prices below $200, higher price levels sustained significant interest. For example, approximately 30% of Internet heads-of-household are to varying degrees interested in purchasing a HCS if priced between $200 and $400, and 20% are to varying degrees if the price is more than $400.

  • Approximately 7% of U.S. Internet homes are currently automated with HCS solutions;

  • HCS intenders (and owners) are quite interested in innovations of media distribution throughout the home - specifically, they are:

    • 62% more likely to be comfortable using a PC as the central component to their home entertainment center; and

    • Three times as likely to be interested in purchasing a media extender.

Consumer Interest in Home Control and Management Solutions Publ 20050526

Mobile Handsets Seen as Status Symbol in Asian Market Leading to Huge Rise in Demand for Flashier and Costlier Phones

Asia India, China, Korea, Malaysia

Research and Markets: With the periodic introduction of new features and multimedia tools in the mobile handsets due to technological advances, more and more people in the Asian continent fancy buying them. In fact, the sales figures give a very encouraging picture of the worldwide mobile handset buying. The figure of 482.5 million mobile handset sales in 2003 has gone up to 561 million in 2004.

There are many diversities and complexities in the Asian mobile handset market that are covered in the market research report. The reasons for complexities are the types of customers, government regulations, regional/geographical wireless infrastructure, and the purchasing power. Basically, the Asian market looks at the mobile handsets as status symbols. The market is seen best for the low-end phones, but there is a huge rise in the demand for flashier and costlier phones.

India, China, Korea, and Malaysia are fast evolving as the biggest markets for mobile handsets.

Mobile Handset Industry Asia (2004-2009) to their offering. Publ 20050526

Slightly Raises Its PC Forecast Based on Stronger Mobile PC Sales

Worldwide

Gartner : Worldwide PC shipments are forecast to total 202.1 million units in 2005, a 10.2 percent increase from 2004. Worldwide PC shipments would increase 9.9 percent. Worldwide mobile PC shipments are expected to grow 26.5 percent in 2005, while deskbased units are now forecast to grow 4.6 percent. Mobile PCs currently make up just under 30 percent of all PC shipments. Mobile PCs are continuing to attract more new users as mobile prices fall and wireless becomes more pervasive. Growing numbers of users are replacing their old desktops with more portable mobiles, and this is one of several factors helping to boost mobile PC growth. Dual-core processors will attract some attention, but they will mostly pique the interest of 'techies' and early adopters. Many applications that take full advantage of dual-core capabilities are still being developed and won't be available until next year at the earliest. Replacement activity has helped drive double-digit PC growth over the last two years,replacement activity will begin to wane this year. Professional replacement activity is in the process of peaking and will fade rapidly over the rest of the year. Meanwhile, home replacement activity is expected to peak early next year and fade more gradually over 2006.This one-two punch will push market growth back into single-digits by next year despite stronger mobile PC growth. 2Q05 Update: Global PC Forecast Scenarios, 2005-2006. Publ 20050526

Worldwide Server Market Continues Growth in First Quarter as Windows and Unix Server Markets Generate Equal Revenues for First Time

Worldwide IDC: 'Factory revenue in the worldwide server market grew at 5.3% year over year to $12.1 billion in the first quarter of 2005, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of positive overall revenue growth. Volume server revenue grew 15.6% year over year and continues to represent the primary growth engine for the server market overall. Revenue for midrange enterprise servers grew 6.1% year over year, marking the second consecutive quarterly increase in that segment. This may reflect increased IT spending to run more scalable workloads and consolidation/virtualization initiatives than can be deployed onto volume servers. Conversely, the high-end enterprise server market, which grew from the fourth quarter of 2003 through the third quarter of 2004, declined 13.9% year over year, its second consecutive quarter of reduced spending. One factor in this drop could be continued price compression, which reduces average sales prices for servers from the high-end enterprise into the midrange enterprise space.

While the market is not accelerating at the same pace that it did in 2004, IT spending remained strong in the first quarter as customers continued to invest in new infrastructure,” said Matt Eastwood, program vice president of Worldwide Server Research at IDC. Although scale-out computing continues to gain favor with customers for an increasing variety of workloads, increased spending for midrange enterprise systems indicates that other form factors continue to be attractive for large, monolithic applications and for consolidation workloads.

  • Year-over-year unit shipment growth of 13.5% - the lowest unit growth in two years - reflects moderating unit growth in the volume server segment and more difficult annual comparisons.

  • Linux servers posted their eleventh consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, with year-over-year revenue growth of 35.2% and unit shipments up 31.1%. Customers continue to expand the role of Linux servers into an ever increasing array of workloads in both the commercial and technical segments of the market.

  • Microsoft Windows servers showed strong growth, as revenues and unit shipments grew 12.3% and 10.7% respectively year over year. Significantly, quarterly revenue of $4.2 billion for Windows servers represented 34.4% of overall quarterly factory revenue, pulling even with quarterly revenue in the Unix server market.

  • Unix servers experienced 2.8% revenue growth year over year and 5.0% unit shipment growth over 1Q04. Worldwide Unix revenues of $4.2 billion for the quarter, coupled with revenue and shipment growth, reflect continued IT investment in this server market segment.

  • IBM held on to its top ranking as HP moved into a statistical tie for number 1 in the worldwide server systems market with 28.3% and 27.6% factory revenue share respectively.

  • Dell and Sun tied for third place in factory revenue with 10.8% and 9.9% share respectively. This is the third consecutive quarter that Dell and Sun have been within one point of market share as Dell experienced 16.6% year-over-year revenue growth while Sun’s revenues increased 2.7% when compared to 1Q04.

  • In terms of unit shipments, HP maintained its number 1 position worldwide with 30.4% server shipment share. Dell maintained the number 2 spot in terms of worldwide server shipments with 24.5% share, growing shipments 17.4% compared to 1Q04.

x86 Industry Standard Server Market Dynamics

Although demand for x86 servers continued to be strong, growth has moderated. Factory revenue grew 13.2% to nearly $5.8 billion worldwide while unit shipments grew 14.2% to nearly 1.5 million servers worldwide. Dell, HP, Fujitsu/FSC and Sun all outpaced the category's growth rate, posting year-over-year revenue growth in excess of 15%.The volume ramp of x86-64 servers continued in the first quarter, on a worldwide basis. HP was able to leverage the ramp of its AMD Opteron-based servers to become the only tier 1 vendor in the lucrative 4-way x86 server segment to grow revenue year-over-year. The gain in 4-way x86-64 servers indicates that enterprises see strong performance and scalability benefits from Opteron-based systems in their data centers."

Linux Servers Surpass the $1 Billion Mark in Revenue for the Third Consecutive Quarter

Linux server revenue exceeded $1.2 billion in quarterly factory revenue in 1Q05 as Linux server revenues showed 35.2% growth, reaching 10.3% of overall quarterly server revenue - an all-time high, as a percent of total quarterly revenue. Worldwide investment in Linux servers for both technical and commercial workloads remains strong as Linux servers continue to expand their presence in data centers around the world. HP maintained its number 1 spot in the Linux server market, with 27.7% market share in terms of revenue, while IBM was second with 19.8%.

Unix Servers and Windows Servers Nearly Tied in Worldwide Revenue

Unix server and Windows server revenue was statistically tied in 1Q04. This is the first quarter in which this has occurred, reflecting increased IT spending in Windows servers to run a wide range of workloads. "Both platforms have a rich inventory of ISV applications, but Unix servers have traditionally gained more revenue from sales in the midrange enterprise and high-end enterprise server segments, based on their ability to support scalable workloads and high RAS levels for mission-critical-workloads," said Jean S. Bozman, vice president of Enterprise Computing. "The equal level of spending in both segments this quarter showed that Windows servers are gaining traction in the enterprise server space with a combination of deeper investment and richer configurations."

Bladed Server Market Shows Strong Shipment and Revenue Growth

The server blade market showed continued growth in the quarter, with shipments increasing by 68.2% year over year and factory revenue gaining 106% year-over-year. Overall, bladed servers accounted for $409 million in the first quarter, representing 3.4% of quarterly server market revenue. IBM maintained the number 1 spot in the server blade market, with 39.2% market share, while HP maintained the number 2 position with 35.2% share. Dell was able to increase its share of the blade market to 9.4% in Q105.

Top 5 Corporate Family, Worldwide Server Systems Factory Revenue, First Quarter of 2005, see Quarterly Server Tracker

Quarterly Server Tracker Publ 20050526

Wednesday, May 25, 2005

Consumer Demand For PVRs Drives Record Unit Shipments

Worldwide North America Japan

In-Stat: Demand for Personal Video Recorder (PVR) products increased tremendously during the past year, as unit shipments rose from 4.6 million in 2003 to over 11.4 million in 2004. This demand stems from increased consumer awareness about the concept of time-shifting television programming, and both pay-TV service providers and PVR product manufacturers are reaping the benefits. The deployment of PVR products has been a success story for both pay-TV service providers and consumer electronics manufacturers,. While the current growth of PVRs is being spurred by satellite TV set top box products and DVD recorders with built-in hard disk drives, other product segments like cable TV set top box-based PVRs are also flying off the shelves.

  • PVR service providers, led by companies like TiVo and EchoStar, also enjoyed a banner year, as total worldwide households subscribing to a PVR service increased from 3.6 million in May 2004, to over 9.2 million in May 2005.

  • North America remains the largest market for PVRs, followed by Japan. In 2004, the two regions accounted for 88% of total worldwide PVR product unit shipments.

  • Worldwide PVR product revenues have also risen rapidly, increasing from $2.1 billion in 2003 to over $4.3 billion in 2004.

  • A recent US consumer survey revealed that most PVR users are highly satisfied with their PVR service. Eighty-nine percent of surveyed PVR households they were either "extremely satisfied" or "very satisfied" with their PVR service.

TV Time-Shifting on the Rise: Worldwide PVR Unit Shipments More Than Double in 2004

Publ 20050525 PVR?

40% of Companies Are Using Hosted CRM Applications

US

AMR Research: Research Advisory Firm Predicts Customer Relationship Management Budgets Will Increase 8% This Year. Projected that 40% of companies are using hosted Customer Relationship Management (CRM) applications. The hosted model differs from traditional licensed software because applications are served over the web from an off-premises provider. Software companies such as salesforce.com and more recently Siebel, with its On-Demand product, have popularized this model for customer management. The use of hosted CRM is rapidly growing, even among larger organizations. Challenge the assumption that SMBs are responsible for the vast majority of hosted application engagements: 28% of large companies (5000+ employees), 39% of mid-tier companies (1000 – 4,999 employees), and 41% of small-to-medium sized businesses have planned deployments over the next 12 months.

Hosted applications have emerged as a growing and extremely viable delivery method for CRM applications, even among larger organizations.

  • 49% of all companies will use hosted sales or e-commerce applications within the next 12 months. This includes almost half (47%) of large companies

  • The deployment of hosted sales force automation applications is more prevalent among larger organizations (31%) than SMB companies (22%)

In the past, hosted CRM has been considered prevalent mostly in the SMB market. Our research shows that companies of all sizes are now using hosted applications as revenue generation becomes a top priority. This, coupled with shorter implementation times, makes the hosted model very attractive. Robust growth in 2006 CRM budgets. 50% of companies surveyed plan to increase their customer management software budgets in 2006 and total customer management budgets will increase 8.2% on average from 2005 to 2006.

Customer Relationship Management (CRM) applications Publ 20050525 CRM?

IT Trends & Expenditures in the US Government Industry to


US
Research and Markets:    The government vertical presents a number of promising opportunities
 for the IT industry. It is estimated that total government IT spending increased by 2% from
2004 to 2005, with increases in expenditures expected to continue moving forward.
 IT spending will reach $87 billion in this market by 2009. This is an increase of
over 2% annually. The local sector is expected to show the strongest growth into 
2009, while the federal sector is the largest purchaser of the three segments. 
Major growth drivers include public safetyinvestment, homeland security funding,
and the need to communicate across and between government levels. 
2004 IT spending report Publ 20050525

L2–L3 Ethernet Switch Market Totals $3.3B in 1Q05; L4–L7 LAN Switch Market Up 5%

Worldwide

Infonetics Research: Worldwide L2–L3 Ethernet switch revenue totaled $3.3 billion in 1Q05, down 7% from 4Q04, and ports decreased 7% to 57 million Growth will pick up over the next four quarters, with ports increasing 14% and revenue 8% by 1Q06. Worldwide revenue is expected to reach $15.9 billion by 2008. Worldwide L4–L7 switch/load balancer shipments are up 10% to 11,000 between 4Q04 and 1Q05, and revenue is up 5% to $175 million, driven by sales of chassis-based devices. While quarterly growth is expected to slow and remain flat through 1Q06 in the overall L4–L7 product market, as there are no compelling applications driving significant increases right now, SSL-enabled devices will continue to sell well.

Cisco continues to lead the worldwide Layer 2–3 fixed configuration switch market, both in revenue and port share, but a race for second-place is playing out for port market share, with NETGEAR leading, D-Link not far behind, and 3Com holding steady. Most port speeds showed declines in the first quarter, 10/100M and 10G most significantly. Gigabit and PoE port shipments did increase a bit, but revenue was down due to ASP pressure. The vast majority of ports continue to be 10/100M, but 1G has been making great inroads, accounting for 18% in 1Q05, while 10G remains insignificant.”

1Q05 Market Highlights

  • Cisco maintains its lead in the L2–3 Ethernet switch market, with about two-thirds of worldwide revenue share and close to a third of worldwide port market share; Cisco also leads the L4–L7 switch/load balancer market in worldwide port and revenue share

  • ProCurve (HP) remains in second place for L2–3 Ethernet switch market revenue market share, and is sixth for port share

  • F5 is now solidly in second place in the overall L4–L7 switch/load balancer market, passing Nortel in 4Q04, with over a quarter of worldwide revenue share, and maintains its strong lead in the L4–L7 switch/load balancer with SSL market, with the main competition coming from Cisco and Nortel

  • Foundry had a positive quarter in the L4–L7 switch/load balancer market, significantly increasing unit and revenue share

  • Fixed switches represent 48% of total L2–L3 switch revenue (up from 4Q04) and chassis switches represent 52%; this has changed from 40% fixed configuration and 60% chassis switch revenue in 2003

Quarterly market share and forecast service, L2–L7 LAN Switches. Publ 20050525 Ethernet switch switch?

Carrier VoIP Equipment Market Up 40% Year-over-Year??

Worldwide Europe

Infonetics Research Worldwide next gen voice product revenue totaled $493 million in 1Q05, down 8% from 4Q04 but up 40% between 1Q04 and 1Q05, and is forecast to grow to $5.8 billion in 2008 . All segments of the next gen voice market are up year-over-year, though the softswitch segment is the only one that saw sequential growth over 4Q04.The market continues to move further mainstream, and last month’s announcement from BT is further indicative of the maturation of the market. BT’s selection of preferred suppliers for its 21st Century Network program to create a converged MPLS network for voice and data services—a five-year, £10 billion investment cycle—is a major deal that will affect router, optical, access, and VoIP equipment markets in Europe for years, in part as many European operators are looking to learn from BT's experience. Alcatel, Cisco, and Siemens were chosen for the metro nodes, which include media gateway, session border controller, BRAS, and edge router functions. Ericsson was chosen to provide the i-node elements, which include softswitches, bandwidth shaping, and network intelligence. These vendors, and their partners, will benefit in sales and prestige associated with this deal.”

1Q05 Market Highlights

  • Worldwide softswitch revenue is up 4% from 4Q04 and 63% from 1Q04

  • Nortel is the worldwide revenue market share leader in the softswitch market

  • Siemens is number two for worldwide softswitch revenue

  • Italtel is third worldwide but first in EMEA after nearly doubling softswitch revenue share in EMEA in 1Q05

  • Trunk media gateways topped $200 million and high-density media gateways represent 78% of all trunk media gateway revenue

  • The geographic breakdown for total service provider next gen voice equipment: 45% North America, 27% EMEA, 21% Asia Pacific, and 7% CALA

Service Provider Next Gen Voice Equipment Publ 20050525 Softswitch?

Multi-Discipline BPO program identified the dire need to develop innovative competitive strategies

US

Yankee Group: The next 2 years will mark a landmark period for large-scale human resources business process outsourcing (HR BPO) contracts in the telecommunications industry, according to new research from the Multi-Discipline BPO (MD-BPO) program. Most telecom companies already outsource some HR functions, most commonly transactional processes, such as benefits administration, health administration and payroll, similar to large companies in other industries. During the first generation of HR BPO contracts, many pioneers have taken the step of outsourcing their HR processes and staff in a full-service environment, including BT, AT&T, Cable & Wireless, Motorola and Telecom Italia. These companies proved that HR BPO can work effectively in the telecom industry.

Telecom businesses are in dire need of new strategies to strip out operating costs, develop innovative competitive strategies and transform their culture in a consolidating and increasingly competitive environment. With customer satisfaction inextricably linked to employee satisfaction, the human resources function in telecom needs to focus on value-add areas of the business, namely enhancing customer relations, intimating core corporate values and business ethics, improving employee morale and people management training at the executive and line-management levels. Telecom Companies Should Seriously Evaluate Outsourcing HR Publ 20050525

WESTERN EUROPEAN MOBILE PHONE SHIPMENTS DECLINE 8 PERCENT IN Q1 2005

Europe

Strategy Analytics: Mobile phone shipments declined 8 percent year-over-year in Western Europe. This was the market's slowest growth rate since 2001. Volume totaled 37 million units in Q1 2005, down from 41 million in Q1 2004.The color phone upgrade cycle is coming to an end. Western European growth, at minus 8 percent, is significantly below the global average of plus 10 per cent in Q1 2005. Moving into the second half of the year, we expect conditions to remain tough, as operators and their device partners will be challenged to drive a compelling range of feature-rich 3G handsets into growth-driving, prepaid, retail price points below 150 Euros.

Competition among .The marketing powerhouses are dominating upgrade sales in this mature region. Nokia retained the number one slot, with a 35 percent market share, while Samsung reached 14 percent to leap from fourth to second. Motorola continues to offer a well-rounded set of handsets and, as a result, holds third with a 13 percent share in Q1 2005.

- LG doubled market share year-over-year in Q1 2005, due to healthy 3G sales;

- Sagem continued to gain steady market share, due to sustained improvements in its product portfolio.

PlayStation Portable Is Most Wanted Gaming Gadget in U.S.

US

Parks Associates’ : Close to one-half (49%) of U.S. Internet users who plan to purchase a portable gaming device want a Sony PlayStation Portable (PSP). Given this level of interest, PSP is in a good position to challenge the other devices in the portable gaming domain, especially devices from Nintendo, the current market leader. Gameboy Advanced and Gameboy DS, both from Nintendo, scored only a combined 33% among U.S. Internet users with purchase plans for a portable gaming device. Nokia N-Gage lags far behind with only 4% of future planned purchases. Plans buy brands: see

Sony’s aggressive marketing and smart positioning have paid off, with more than 1.3 million units sold in the U.S. in less than two months, with no signs of its sales tapering off. Our research further shows that the PSP’s sleek, sexy design and support for music and video playback bolster its already strong appeal among gamers older than 18.”

Mobile Entertainment Platforms and Services Publ 20050525 Gaming portable

IT Services Led China Medium Business IT Spending of US$6 Billion in 2004

China

AMI-Partners: China medium businesses increased IT and telecom spending in 2004, registering more than US$6.1 billion. The SMB IT industry analysts found that more than half of the IT-related investments were dedicated to IT services, such as customized software, consulting and support . Computing products -- including clients, servers and imaging products -- made up more than 20 percent. China medium-sized businesses (MBs) are continuing their infrastructure build-out and migrating to more complex systems. As a result, AMI-Partners expects that demand for IT services in this market will continue to surge.

Growing PC Density and Other Hardware Upgrades

PC investment by China MBs in 2004 resulted in shipments exceeding 300,000 units. The PC-to-employee ratio shows significant room for market expansion. The industry is consolidating, with local giant Lenovo acquiring IBM’s PC operations. Leading server brands installed include HP, IBM and Lenovo. Among medium businesses planning to purchase new servers in the next 12 months, brands being considered are HP, IBM, Dell, Lenovo and Great Wall.

Additional highlights from the AMI study, which included face-to-face in-depth interviews with MBs across Tier 1, Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities in China, include the following:

  • More than a third of China MBs plan to purchase a PC in the next 12 months.

  • Current IT penetration findings point to approximately every three to four employees sharing a PC, every three PCs sharing a printer, and every 20 PCs and seven printers sharing one server.

Labor-intensive industries like manufacturing, construction, agriculture and mining tend to have a lower PC-to-employee ratio. Such sectors account for 50% of the MB universe and are expected to invest in IT automation.

Going Mobile -- Approaching the Wireless Era China MBs are well penetrated with Internet access, and rely heavily on the Internet to increase sales efficiency and to streamline their accounting and finance processes. The rapid globalization of the economy has resulted in a growing mobile workforce among China MBs:

  • Currently, more than two thirds of China MBs have mobile employees who travel for business at least four to five days monthly.

  • China MBs have more than one business location and a typical MB has approximately four branch offices.

2004-2005 China Medium Business Market Overview and Topline Assessment Publ 20050525