Asian Fiber-to-the-Home in Hyper Growth, But Opportunities Vary Dramatically Between Regions

The Diffusion: Asian FTTH will Grow Almost 10 Fold by 2010. The number of fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) subscribers in Asia will grow from 4.6 million in 2005 to more than 40 million by 2010 - then accounting for as much as 25% of all Asian broadband subscribers in 2010. However, analysts caution that the business case for FTTH deployments will be primarily urban and will vary dramatically in emerging markets. TDG's latest topic paper, The Market for FTTH in Asia: Different Geographies, Varied Opportunities, is available for free download at www.thediffusiongroup.com.

Fiber-to-the-Home Subscribers in Asia - 2002 to 2005

The majority of FTTH deployments in Asia will be confined to areas where broadband penetration is mature, bandwidth-hungry users continue to want more speed and governments provide incentives. FTTH deployments will be primarily limited to urban areas where the most affluent, professional, and bandwidth-dependent consumers reside in apartments or other multi-dwelling units. In such environments, user density is very high - a factor that makes the FTTH business case much more attractive.

To help identify where and when these specific opportunities will emerge within Asia's developing and emerging markets, TDG evaluated various deployment scenarios across suburban, urban and rural market segments. As well, a variety of locale-specific factors such as labor rates and disposable income were added to the model - these variables play a significant role in cost sensitivity analysis and ultimately determine which Asian regions cross the FTTH/DSL tipping point at which time. TDG also analyzes the importance of regional incumbents, as they will be the an important factor in determining (1) when the tipping point is reached, and (2) when mass rollouts are thus deemed attractive. While high levels of user density is important, it is the new revenues and consequently consumer ability to pay that make the business proposition significantly more attractive to operators. This is the real tipping point for FTTH industry - identifying the point at which the economics of deploying FTTH become more compelling than the economics of deploying or upgrading DSL.

Fiber to the Home in Asia: Analysis & Forecasts,

Publ 20060331