Mobile market in Central and Eastern Europe to reach EUR58.4 billion in 2011

Analysys: The Central and Eastern European mobile market is forecast to grow by more than 10% per year to reach EUR58.4 billion in 2011. Rising mobile phone penetration and the increasing adoption of mobile broadband access services across the region will drive this growth.

Low fixed line penetration in the region means that mobile networks provide a viable alternative to ADSL for many subscribers – in some cases a wireless solution is the only broadband access option. A number of operators in the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia and elsewhere have introduced broadband access services based on EDGE, W-CDMA, CDMA450 EV-DO and other technologies, and are increasingly taking market share away from ADSL providers.

At the same time, providing basic voice services remains the single biggest revenue opportunity, particularly as many CEE markets are still far from saturation. Mobile-only operators need to promote further fixed–mobile substitution, which will result in a stabilisation and growth of voice ARPU, .

• Total mobile services revenue is forecast to grow at a compound average growth rate (CAGR) of 11.4% from EUR30.6 billion in 2005 to EUR58.4 billion in 2011 – chart available to journalists on request. This compares to CAGR of 5.0% over the same period for Western Europe.

• Active mobile penetration in CEE was 66.0% at the end of 2005 (compared to 96.0% in Western Europe) and is forecast to grow to 96.2% by 2011

• ARPU is expected to bottom out and recover, reaching EUR12.7 by 2011 (up from EUR11.3 in 2005). ARPU growth will be fuelled by spend on non-messaging data services (which will contribute EUR0.6 and EUR2.1 to the total ARPU in 2005 and 2011 respectively). Voice ARPU will stabilise and gradually recover.

The Central and Eastern European Mobile Market - trends and forecasts 2006-2011 Publ 20060522