Mobile RAN equipment sales down 22% in 1Q06

Infonetics:The worldwide radio access network equipment market fell 22% to $7.4 billion in 1Q06 due to a huge drop in CDMA/EV-DO/EVDV and GSM/GPRS/EDGE equipment revenue. W-CDMA/UMTS RAN equipment was up 8% in 1Q06.

This reflects the move to 3G networks, with 2G/2.5G equipment accounting for a declining proportion of the RAN market while 3G equipment grows from 19% of overall RAN revenue in 2005 to 73% in 2009.

2G and 2.5G rollout continues in developing countries, but established cellular markets that have ubiquitous 2G/2.5G networks are now predominantly driven by 3G upgrades,. The overall volume of RAN equipment shipments is dropping, and prices—especially for base stations—are also sliding, undermining overall RAN equipment revenue. Not even 3G equipment will be immune to this pricing pressure, meaning that annual worldwide RAN revenue in 2009 will look more like quarterly RAN revenue in 2004.

• Total RAN revenue is forecast to hit $26.3 billion in 2009, a 5-year CAGR of -10%

• worldwide base transceiver station (BTS) units were flat and revenue decreased 18% in 1Q06, as mobile operators continue their transition to 3G across all geographic regions

• Of the 1.9 billion mobile subscribers worldwide in 2005, 79% were GSM, 14% CDMA, and 7% 3G subscribers; by 2009, 3G subscribers grow to 19% of total

• worldwide mobile subscribers are forecast to grow to 2.9 billion by 2009

• In 1Q06, Asia Pacific accounted for 42% of worldwide RAN equipment revenue, EMEA for 33%, North America 14% and CALA 12%

Radio Access Network Equipment Publ 20060601