Global box office revenues are forecast to grow by $2.6 billion between 2005 and 2010 - to $24.9 billion,. The 2010 figure is up 11% on 2005 and almos

Informa: Global. There are numerous reasons why 2005 was a generally lacklustre year, but the improved second-half performance shows that attractive films can still drive record numbers of people to the theatres. Last year admissions worldwide fell back to levels last experienced in 2000. While increasing ticket prices have managed to reduce the impact on box office, global revenues were still down $1.4 billion on 2004.

Split of Gross Box Office by Continent (%)

	1995	2000	2005	2010
Asia Pacific	23	16	18	18
Europe	28	31	30	30
Latin America	6	6	6	6
Middle East/Africa	1	1	1	1
North America	43	46	45	45

Source: Informa Telecoms & Media

North America is forecast to take 45% of global box office in 2010. This share will remain fairly consistent for a decade, falling only slightly from 46% in 2000. The top 10 countries accounted for 84.2% of global box office in 2005, with this proportion likely to drop only a little (to 84.0%) by 2010.

Split of Admissions by Continent (%)

	1995	2000	2005	2010
Asia Pacific	72	62	60	59
Europe	10	14	14	14
Latin America	2	3	4	5
Middle East/Africa	1	1	1	1
North America	16	20	21	21

Source: Informa Telecoms & Media

With a 6% increase expected for 2005-2010, admissions growth will continue to under-perform box office. Over the same period, the global screen count will see only a 2% increase, as growth in some territories is offset by falls in highly populated countries such as China and India.

Asia Pacific dominates the admissions figures, but low ticket prices mean that its influence on gross box office revenues fell in the late 1990s. Asia Pacific's share has been falling consistently, with North America and Europe the main beneficiaries.

The new reality is that only the most compelling slate of films can draw people away from alternative entertainment sources. This scenario puts enormous pressure on the Hollywood studios, but our forecasts assume they will raise their game accordingly. The film industry has become a victim of its own success. A good year raises public expectations but the industry hasn't always been able to deliver consistently. Film quality appears to follow a two-year cycle, with a strong year often followed by a weaker one. In the new highly-competitive entertainment world, movies that fall below expected standards no longer find an audience. The studios have to produce the goods every year, as any relaxation of quality is perceived by the public, which quickly switches to alternative leisure types.

Global box office revenues in 2010 will be around double the 1995 total.

Informa's Global Film: Exhibition & Distribution report Publ 20060109