With DSL at Turning Point, DSL IC Revenues Will Fall

In-Stat. As broadband moves from data-only services to triple play offerings, the DSL market is in flux, and total DSL IC revenues will drop from a high of close to $1.6 billion in 2004 to $880 million by 2009. Combining voice, video and data within the same stream forces a myriad of changes that will impact the DSL IC industry in the coming years. By far, the most difficult problem is predicting what flavors of DSL will be required when and where. And while there is clearly a drive toward faster connections, no one is sure where the thirst for more bandwidth will end.

• The total market for DSL in ports shipped will remain fairly stable across the forecast period, despite a slight dip in 2006, as the market prepares for the transition to ADSL2+ and VDSL2.

• Given that ADSL2+ is compatible with all previous forms of ADSL, ADSL2+ chips now comprise a majority of DSL shipments.

• There will be an increased shift to VDSL, which will grow from just 3.9% of actual 2004 port shipments to 29.6% of estimated shipments in 2009.

DSL ICs: Perfecting the Triple Play Publ 20060201