Double-digit revenue growth forecast for W-CDMA RAN equipment through 2009

Infonetics: The Worldwide radio access network equipment market topped $41 billion in 2005, with 58% of that coming from GSM/GPRS/EDGE equipment, 23% from CDMA/EV-DO/EV-DV equipment, and 19% from W-CDMA equipment.

Over the next four years, those numbers will flip, with W-CDMA RAN equipment revenue growing at an annual double-digit pace until it reaches $26.6 billion in 2009, while GSM/GPRS/EDGE equipment revenue drops to $5.1 billion in 2009. At that time, W-CDMA equipment will account for 64% of Worldwide RAN equipment revenue, and GSM/GPRS/EDGE equipment will shrink to just 12%. Meanwhile, CDMA/EV-DO/EV-DV RAN equipment is expected to decline slightly in 2006 but will renew growth starting in 2007 as CDMA operators upgrade to 3G.

Voice traffic and subscriber growth continued to drive GSM and CDMA rollout in less developed regions, and applications like music and video clip download, multimedia messaging, and online gaming drove 3G deployment in more developed markets in 2005. More advanced services such as mobile TV are on the horizon, driving the need for ongoing innovation in RAN equipment, and new base station forms and architectures to support these services.

• W-CDMA RAN equipment revenue grew 15% in 4Q05

• Worldwide BTS revenue hit just over $6 billion in 4Q05, down 5% from 3Q05

• Worldwide BSC revenue hit $3.4 billion in 4Q05, down 17% from 3Q05

• The number of mobile subscribers grew to 1.9 billion in 2005, a 13% increase over 2004, and is forecast to grow 53% between 2005 and 2009, when it will reach 2.9 billion

• In 2005, Asia Pacific accounts for 42% of Worldwide RAN equipment revenue, EMEA accounts for 32%, North America 17% and CALA 9%; by 2009, Asia Pacific will increase its share to 44% due to a ramp-up in W-CDMA spending in China

Radio Access Network Equipment

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