The Notebook Untethered: Wireless Technologies are Competing for Space in Portable Computers

ABI: A changing mix of communications protocols will compete for space in notebook computers as they take a growing share of the personal computer market over the next five years. Wireless-equipped notebooks will feature a gradual shift from 802.11g to 802.11n Wi-Fi, as well as significant growth in the number of notebooks with embedded UWB or cellular radios. There is limited room in a notebook computer for antennas and radios. We'll see a battle among competing technologies to reserve a place within the notebook, and number of chip manufacturers are very concerned about that. Notebooks will all (except perhaps the lowest tier of inexpensive Asian machines) have Wi-Fi: the question is, what else will they have? UWB? Cellular? WiMAX? Both notebook manufacturers and wireless IC vendors such as Intel, Atheros, and Marvell have a critical interest in how notebook connectivity is going to evolve. With the 802.11n standard still some way off, and the Wi-Fi Alliance aggressively promoting certification of pre-n products, the stage may be set for some market confusion. Some of the chip makers in particular are unrealistic about their expectations for pre-draft 802.11n. In our experience large enterprises are always very conservative about embracing non-standard solutions. As a result, what we're likely to see in the next couple of years is a solid majority of 'premium g' device sales in the consumer sector, but not much traction in the enterprise. The Evolution of the PC in a Wireless world Publ 20061011