Cable Broadband Subscribers Up 22% in 2004; CMTS Revenue Down First Time in 7 Quarters

Global

Infonetics Research: Worldwide cable broadband subscribers grew 22% between 2003 and 2004 to 41 million, with continued strong but slowing growth expected through 2008, when subscribers will total 58 million, according to ’s quarterly worldwide market share and forecast report.

Meanwhile, worldwide CMTS revenue decreased 25% between 4Q04 and 1Q05 to $145 million, a drop that was expected after an especially large fourth quarter and a record-setting year in 2004. This is the first down quarter after 7 quarterly increases in a row.

The bull rush in the CMTS market will pick up next quarter and continue at least through 2008, fueled by high speed Internet, telephony, PacketCable Multimedia, and wideband cable DOCSIS 3.0 upgrades, driven first by North America, then Asia Pacific, and later Europe. We raised our long-term forecast this quarter, as it appears the DSL and FTTH rampage that is causing a reactive cable investment course will be with us for some time.”

All players in the CMTS market were down this quarter. The 3 worldwide leaders--Cisco, Motorola, and Arris--together capture 94% of worldwide revenue as they battle in a hot race for revenue share in North America.

1Q05 CMTS Market Highlights: Cisco maintains its worldwide lead with over 50% revenue and port market share.

Motorola continues in second place after increasing its worldwide revenue market share by 3 percent. Arris is still in third position, also increasing its revenue share by 3 percent. North America continues to be the regional stronghold of cable broadband subscribers with 56% of the world total in 2004, followed by Asia Pacific at 24%, EMEA at 16%, and CALA at 4%. 51% of CMTS revenue was from North America, 26% from EMEA, 20% from Asia Pacific, and 3% from CALA; these numbers will continue to shift some away from North America as MSOs in Asia Pacific and EMEA continue increasing their data offerings. Cable Aggregation Hardware Publ 20050523 CMTS?