Monday, October 31, 2005

New Broadband Services Boost DLC/MSAN Market

In-Stat : The market for DLC/MSAN (Digital Loop Carrier/ Multi-Service Access Node) equipment is on the rise, as shipments to telecom carriers will jump from 24 million ports in 2004 to 36.9 million ports in 2009. DLCs that provided remote termination of POTS lines in the access network have evolved to become MSANs that support POTS, DSL, and FTTP access lines. “DLC/MSAN vendors now offer a number of features that support the service provider transition to new broadband services and an all-IP network. These products enable deep fiber solutions, such as FTTN and FTTC, where the DLC equipment is deployed closer to the user so that copper loop lengths are shorter, and ADSL2+ or VDSL technologies provide the required high bandwidth. Some service providers deploy fiber all the way to customer premise using an FTTP architecture that is also supported by the MSANs.

  • IWorldwide DLC/MSAN POTS + DSL revenues to stay relatively flat for the next five years, due to heavy price competition among the vendors.

  • Huawei continued to be the worldwide leader in overall DLC/MSAN port shipments in 2004, with about a 36% market share, and Alcatel was second, with a 21% market share.

  • A number of vendors support VoIP media gateway functionality to enable replacement of Class 5 PSTN switches.

MSANs/DLCs Enable Telco FTTX, TV Services, and VoIP Migration Publ. 20051031

Digital TV only in a third of global TV homes by 2010

By 2010, almost a third of the world's TV homes will receive digital signals - or nearly 400 million households. This indicates that digital growth will accelerate significantly as the decade progresses, especially outside North America and western Europe. . The North American penetration rate will exceed 50%, with western Europe at 31%. The aspirations of many governments to cut off analogue signals over the next decade are in jeopardy. If digital conversion is left to the consumer, then there will be a core of digital obstinates. If governments try to push analogue switch-off through subsidies or even regulation, then they run the risk of legal action from pay TV platforms or consumer groups.

In most markets a specific digital platform is the logical successor to analogue TV, but politicians need to give equal weight to all of the digital options. They face a difficult job to balance the urge to drive through digital conversion as quickly as possible, while also retaining platform neutrality.

Digital TV household composition in 2010 (million). Cable will be the main source of digital TV households, bringing in 230 million homes by 2010. Satellite (DTH) will be the next most popular delivery system at 92 million. There will be 45 million Digital Terrestrial (DTT)-only homes (i.e. those not subscribing to cable, satellite or IPTV) and 26 million households receiving IPTV signals. However, 711 million homes will still take analogue signals, so digital growth will necessarily extend way beyond the forecast period. By 2010, 67% of TV households will still receive analogue signals, revealing plenty of scope for further digital growth.

More (tables): The fifth edition of Informa's Dynamics of Games report Publ. 20050930

Saturday, October 29, 2005

DRM to push online Music Market in the US on a 7-fold rise by 2008

RNCOS: Digital Rights Management (DRM) is related to copy-protection technology, which establishes security and encryption in solving unauthorized copying by locking the content of a software document and limit its distribution to only those permitted to use it. DRM allows users to make as many private copies while preventing its piracy. DRM is mostly used in all legal music downloads and subscriptions. As an example, Sony was using a root kit in order to hide traces of its copy restriction that was penetrating into a computer’s operating system to cover up certain software files and functions performed by the computer. It was also found that as online operations were becoming widespread, free services from it that were being sued on issues relating to infringement of copyright laws was gaining popularity. In its recent market research report experts say that in the US and Europe, the size of the DRM enabled online music market was expected to reach a revenue earning of about $2.18 billion in 2008 from $275 million in 2004, the rise being nearly a seven fold. In Western Europe alone the online music market is expected to grow to $656 million in 2008 from $124 million in 2005, the growth being five times in the next three years. Digital Rights Management-An Industry Outlook (2005-2008) Publ 20051129 Digital Rights Management? Wikipedia

Wednesday, October 26, 2005

Consumer Electronics Is Major Growth Area For Hard Drives

In-Stat : As consumers continue to amass large amounts of digital content, they require enhanced storage capacity on their consumer electronic products. Hard drive manufacturers are increasing storage capacities on smaller form factor hard disk drives (HDDs); as a result, these companies are poised to benefit from the expanding Consumer Electronics (CE) market. In 2004, shipments of hard disk drives into the Consumer Electronics segment reached 40 million units, and this market will reach almost 240 million units in 2009. Over the next few years, significant growth may come from portable devices such as PDAs, digital camcorders, and mobile phones.Alternative storage solutions, such as improved Flash, will continue to compete against small form factor HDDs. Nevertheless, HDD manufacturers are primed for impressive growth in the CE segment, especially as shipments of 1-inch HDDs escalate due to growth in the portable CE space.

  • The 1-inch-and-smaller HDD market will win out over the forecast period and represent 50% of all HDDs shipped to the CE segment by 2009.

  • Total worldwide shipments of hard drives will increase dramatically over the next five years, growing from approximately 304 million in 2004 to 500 million in 2009.

  • As a result of demand for storing increased amounts of data on smaller, portable devices, HDD manufacturers have strengthened efforts to introduce products utilizing perpendicular recording.

Hard Disk Drives in CE: Primed for Impressive Growth Publ. 20051026

Tuesday, October 25, 2005

Consumer Trends in 2005 European Connected Consumer Survey

Yankee Group: 2005 European Connected Consumer Survey, which reveals European broadband consumer trends, summarizes the state of the market and gauges future market trends. Survey respondents are broadband households spread evenly (20% each) across France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom.

• 21% of broadband users have churned from their BSP in the last 12 months, compared with 17% in 2004.

• Nearly 70% of multi-PC homes now own some kind of home networking solution.

• More than half of all broadband users are interested in next-generation TV services.

Broadband service providers (BSPs) and other service providers that provide communications and entertainment to the connected home are challenged with preventing churn. BSPs need to explore ways to beat price-based competition.. BSPs can avoid this battle by paying close attention to consumer desires including value-added services, enhanced benefits and new features. European Connected Consumer Survey Publ. 20051025

MORE THAN 20 MILLION U.S. HOUSEHOLDS WILL SUBSCRIBE TO A VOIP-BASED TELEPHONE SERVICE BY 2010

Jupiter Research By 2010, 20.4 million U.S. households will subscribe to a Voice Over Internet Protocol (VoIP)-based broadband telephony service, a dramatic increase from the 1.2 million subscribers in 2004. Both cable operators and startups are marketing services, which continues to increase consumer awareness. While providers face regulatory and competitive challenges, the message of cheaper, more feature-rich phone service is attracting consumers.

Broadband telephony as VoIP-based services offering the ability to make and receive calls via the Internet from anyone with a phone. PC-based systems, such as Skype, as niche players in the U.S. and are, therefore, not included in this forecast. With the current abundance of broadband telephony offerings, the market has spurred competition around price and features. Although most consumers still do not know what VoIP stands for, they do increasingly know that if they have broadband they have alternatives for getting phone service.

U.S. Broadband Telephony Forecast 2005 to 2010, Publ. 20051025

Over One Third Of Consumers May Use Wireless As Primary Phone In 2009

In-Stat : Between 23% and 37% of US wireless subscribers will use a wireless phone as their primary telephone by 2009. About 9.4% of US wireless subscribers already use a wireless phone as their primary phone, and compared with earlier surveys, fewer consumers feel that a wired phone is necessary . Those who are considering wireless substitution for landline are primarily motivated by lifestyle issues, as long as they don’t have to give up much in terms of quality, reliability, or services,. Wireless carriers can stimulate substitution by continuing to attract customers to advanced wireless features and educating them about availability of number portability.

  • Consumers who are most likely to consider replacing their landline phone with wireless are those who are already heavy wireless users. Demographics do not offer much insight into the likelihood of wireless substitution.

  • Among those with a wireless and landline phone, resistance to wireless substitution has dropped dramatically since In-Stat’s 2003 survey.

  • Barriers to landline replacement, particularly in-building coverage and perceived inconvenience (such as losing DSL or having to change the phone number), are resolvable with other technologies, continued network build-out, or consumer education.

Cutting the Cord: Consumer Profiles and Carrier Strategies for Wireless Substitution Publ. 20051025

Monday, October 24, 2005

Five-Year Forecast for Consumer Portable Device Adoption

Yankee Group: US

• By 2009, the portable game business will be worth $2.3 billion

• One-half of all portable music players will be phone hybrids by 2009, yet these phones will account for only one-third of the portable music service revenue

Dedicated digital audio devices will continue to be used more exclusively for their single purpose

Game hand-held devices and phone hybrids will garner near equal share of revenue by 2009

In response to the diminishing divide between wireless handsets and portable CE devices, Y

US Portable Entertainment Forecast Publ. 20051024

Friday, October 21, 2005

IPTV set for boom time in Europe as convergence finally becomes a reality – by 2009 IPTV will account for almost ten per cent of the European pay TV m

Screendigest: The number of IPTV subscribers in Europe is poised to increase to 8.7 million by 2009, up from just 658,000 today. The number of IPTV subscribers in Europe has increased 66 per cent so far this year and with more services about to launch, 2005 is projected to see a 200 per cent increase on 2004 figures. IPTV is set to mount a significant challenge to the established satellite and cable operators in Europe. By 2009, IPTV will have a 9.4 per cent share of the European pay TV market. The impact of IPTV on local pay TV markets will be strongest in France, Italy and Spain. By 2009 IPTV will have a 20 per cent share of the pay TV market in Italy, 17 per cent in France and 16 per cent in Spain. The potential benefactors are Europe's traditional telecoms businesses, which are hoping this technology will herald a new era of profitability, following the steady erosion of their traditional fixed line business. Although some technical and content issues have yet to be resolved, the combination of compelling, competitively priced triple-play offers that include true video-on-demand will prove a winning formula. Many traditional pay television providers are finding that they too must adopt IPTV technologies in order to remain competitive . The most successful IPTV operator is Italy's Fastweb followed by two French telcos in Free Telecom and France Telecom, with 190,000, 130,000 and 116,000 customers respectively. France's three major network operators France Telecom, Free Telecom and Neuf Telecom boast 281,000 customers between them, making France the leading IPTV market in Europe. Italy has 190,000 and in Spain there are 57,500 subscribers. Despite being Europe's oldest IPTV market the UK has yet to become a significant player and had only 30,000 subscribers in mid 2005. This represents 0.08 per cent of TV households compared to satellite penetration of nearly 30 per cent, cable penetration of nearly 13 per cent, and DTT penetration of 20 per cent. The majority of the UK's subscribers are accounted for by Homechoice which has battled for subscribers since it was launched in one of Europe's most competitive pay TV markets. Despite recent subscriber growth Video Networks is facing the prospect of increased competition. BT's Freeview Plus hybrid IPTV/DTT service is due to launch commercially in summer 2006 and more ISPs are expected to start IPTV in the near future. In the near term Homechoice's biggest competitors are the cable operators which can also offer triple play services and video-on-demand European IPTV: Market assessment and forecast, Triple play? Wikipedia Red Viking Publ. 20051121

Wednesday, October 19, 2005

STREAMING SUBSCRIPTION AND DOWNLOAD MEDIA REVENUE UP BY 109% IN '05 TO $1.4 BIL.

AccuStream: Streaming subscription and download media is forecast to reach $1.378 billion in 2005, up 109% over 2004, paced by music services enjoying revenue growth of 397% in 2004 and another 154% in 2005.

The total market is forecast to reach $2 billion in total revenue in 2006, with music, sports and entertainment subscription and download revenue leading all content categories.

Overall, streaming media subscription and download revenue grew by 150% from 2003 through 2004, 109% from 2004 through 2005 and is currently forecast to increase by another 45% in 2006.

Music (streaming and download) has been the largest content category online from 2003 through the present. Subscription music services actually led download media revenue in ‘03, but positions reversed in 2004, maintained that leadership position by even wider margin in 2005 and forecast to do so again in 2006.

The download side of the business is forecast at $832 million in 2005, with streaming subscriptions at $237 million.

Major brands such as Apple, Yahoo, Real Networks, AOL (MusicNet on AOL and iTUNES on AOL), MLB, NFL, NBA, NASCAR, StarzTicket, Movielink and many more are analyzed inside this report.

Smaller independent services (including both Internet radio, streaming and download video services) are also included.

Subscriber growth across a range of subscription services in 2005 have been driven by more relevant and customized product offerings better tailored to what subs have utilized in the past, including complementary services, expanded media player capabilities and additional subscription options that include mobile and unlimited pricing models.

Promotion is also as important as reaching subscribers willing to pay for content, convenience and portability. Witness the new marketing and promotional relationship between ESPN and MLB. These two brands have a long-term contextual relationship between viewers and content and that transcends mediums.

Subscription Streaming and Download Media: Revenue and Market Share by Service 2003 – 2006 Publ 20051019

Monday, October 17, 2005

Broadband-Enabled Hotels to More Than Triple by 2009

In-Stat : Worldwide, the ranks of broadband-enabled hotels will grow from 14,300 properties in 2004 to nearly 54,000 properties in 2009.. Broadband services have penetrated North America limited service properties at a much more rapid pace than expected, and that region will continue to see growth over the next few years.. This forecast represents properties that offer broadband access in the guestroom, rather than only in the business center, lobby areas, or meeting rooms. Growth in the next few years will focus on two and three star properties in North America, as well as increased deployment in Europe and Asia Pacific. In previously deployed hotels, broadband will be pushed into new areas and new applications.

  • North America is currently the largest region for hotel broadband, representing approximately two-thirds of total properties connected.

  • In terms of total market, defined as all travel accommodations worldwide, broadband will have only penetrated 3.4 percent in 2004, growing to 11.4 percent in 2009.

  • Acquisitions will continue to change the provider landscape.

Battling for Broadband: Broadband in the Hospitality Industry Publ. 20051017

Telco TV Driving IP/DSL Set Top Box Sales

In-Stat Increasing deployments of TV services by telco operators are boosting the IP/DSL set top box market. As a result, shipments of IP/DSL set top boxes will grow from 1.7 million in 2004 to 16.9 million in 2009 At that point, this market will surpass the digital cable set top box market in size. Despite the market’s great opportunities, In-Stat believes it cannot support the number of currently participating vendors. There are over 80 vendors offering IP/DSL set top boxes today,. That’s too many vendors for a market of this size. Only about 25 of them have telco customers.

  • Free was the top supplier of IP/DSL set top boxes in 2004.

  • IP/DSL set top box Average Selling Prices (ASPs) are highest in the Americas due to the desire for DVR, HD, and multi-room boxes in North America.

  • The greatest technology shift in IP/DSL set top boxes is the move to advanced video compression, which requires more memory and more powerful video decoders than MPEG-2.

IP/DSL Set Top Box Market Overflowing, with Vendors Publ. 20051017

A Frightened First World looks for Biometrics Security Cover…

RNCOS: Biometrics based security surveillance devices and discretionary access control technologies have come about as a result of digital access control system which prescribes who, what or the type of process may access some restricted resources. The discretionary access handles restriction of informative data using services or physical objects. That after 9/11 in the US and 7/7 in UK, the demand for access control and security surveillance technology has increased, which is expected to have an Annual Average Growth Rate of 37.1% by 2009. The current changes affecting the security system market. Ease of use and low cost have made biometrics very common place. Access Control Technologies and Market Forecast World Over Publ 20051117

Sunday, October 16, 2005

Chip Sales Will Surpass $300 Billion in 2008.Semiconductor sales to reach $245 billion in 2006.

The Semiconductor Industry Association: Annual forecast of global semiconductor sales, projecting a compound annual growth rate of nearly 10 percent for the forecast period, 2005 through 2008. The new forecast projects that worldwide sales of microchips will reach $309 billion in 2008 – an increase of 45 percent from the $213 billion record level of 2004. The forecast calls for 2005 sales to increase by 6.8 percent to $227.6 billion, followed by increases of 7.9 percent to $245.5 billion in 2006, 10.5 percent to $271.3 billion in 2007, and 13.9 percent to $309.2 billion in 2008. While Information Technology products will continue to be the largest market sectors for semiconductors, consumer products will be the major growth-drivers in the years ahead. Advances in microchip technology are enabling a wide array of new products that have captured the imagination of consumers. Cell phones are rapidly evolving into multi-purpose personal information and entertainment devices. Pocket-sized MP3 players are incorporating video and gaming functions. The conversion from analog to digital television is accelerating and will gain momentum over the next several years, especially now that Congress appears ready to set a date certain for the U.S. transition to digital broadcasting. Consumers are now driving most of the advances in personal computers, which have become the hub of home technology. Fast-growing consumer markets are expanding demand for leading-edge products for digital signal processing, flash memory, and power management. The fastest-growing major end-markets in 2006 will be: personal computers with a forecasted unit growth of 10 percent; cellular telephones at 13 percent; digital cameras at 9 percent; digital televisions at 52 percent; and MP3 players at 52 percent. The 2006 forecast projects that the microprocessor market will grow slightly faster than the PC market in 2006. Growth will be driven by a growing proportion of notebook computers, which use processors that have higher average selling prices than those used in desktop systems. The 2006 forecast projects growth of 15.9 percent for flash memory, driven largely by strong growth (23.5 percent) in NAND flash, which is used in products such as MP3 players and digital cameras. NOR flash is growing more slowly (6.1 percent) as cell phone manufacturers are using other types of memory devices, such as DRAMs and NAND flash. Digital signal processors (DSP) are projected to be the fastest-growing major segment of the semiconductor market with 17.2 percent growth in 2006. Strong growth in the cell phone market, the transition to 3G (third-generation) cell phones, and new uses for DSP chips in consumer products such as high-definition camcorders are the major drivers of increased demand. The forecast projects a 10.1 percent decline in sales of DRAM devices. . Geographic Market Forecasts ------------------------------------------- Americas Market: The Americas market was $39.1 billion in 2004. This market is projected to grow by 3 percent in 2005 to $40.2 billion; by 4.5 percent in 2006 to $42.1 billion; by 8.7 percent in 2007 to $45.7 billion; and by 11.8 percent in 2008 to $51.1 billion. European Market: The European market was $39.4 billion in 2004. This market is projected to grow by 0.1 percent in 2005 to $39.5 billion; by 4.9 percent in 2006 to $41.4 billion; by 9.7 percent in 2007 to $45.4 billion; and by 12.3 percent in 2008 to $51.0 billion. Japan Market: The Japan market was $45.8 billion in 2004. This market is projected to decline by 2.6 percent in 2005 to $44.6 billion; to grow by 5.2 percent in 2007 to $46.9 billion; by 8.3 percent in 2007 to $50.8 billion; and by 11.6 percent in 2008 to $56.7 billion. Asia-Pacific Market: The Asia-Pacific market was $88.8 billion in 2004. This market is projected to grow by 16.4 percent in 2005 to $103.3 billion; by 11.4 percent in 2006 to $115.1 billion; by 12.4 percent in 2007 to $129.4 billion; and by 16.2 percent in 2008 to $150.4 billion. Key Semiconductor Product Categories -------------------------------------------------------- Discrete Components: The discrete components market was $15.8 billion in 2004. This market is projected to decline by 2.6 percent to $15.4 billion in 2005; to increase by 3.7 percent to $15.9 billion in 2006; to grow by 8.9 percent to $17.3 billion in 2007; and to grow by 8.7 percent to $18.9 billion in 2008. Optoelectronics: The optoelectronics market was $13.7 billion in 2004. This market is projected to grow by 9 percent to $15.0 billion in 2005; to grow by 9.6 percent to $16.4 billion in 2006; to grow by 10.7 percent to $18.2 billion in 2007; and to grow by 15.3 percent to $20.9 billion in 2008. Analog: The analog market was $31.4 billion in 2004. This market is projected to grow by 1.1 percent to $31.7 billion in 2005; to grow by 11.9 percent to $35.5 billion in 2006; to grow by 13.0 percent to $40.1 billion in 2007; and to grow by 16.4 percent to $46.7 billion in 2008. MOS Logic: The MOS logic market was $49.4 billion in 2004. This market is projected to grow by 16.3 percent in 2005 to $57.6 billion; to grow by 8.4 percent to $62.4 billion in 2006; to grow by 11.5 percent to $69.6 billion in 2007; and to grow by 14.5 percent to $79.7 billion in 2008. Microprocessors: The microprocessor market was $30.5 billion in 2004. This market is projected to grow by16.3 percent to $35.5 billion in 2005; to grow by 11.7 percent to $39.6 billion in 2006; to grow by 7.6 percent to $42.6 billion in 2007; and to grow by 8.3 percent to $46.1 billion in 2008. Microcontrollers: The microcontroller market was $12.5 billion in 2004. This market is projected to decline by 3.4 percent to $12.0 billion in 2005; to grow by 6.3 percent to $12.8 billion in 2006; to grow by 9.5 percent to $14.0 billion in 2007; and to grow by 11.6 percent to $15.6 billion in 2008. Digital Signal Processors: The DSP market was $7.8 billion in 2004. This market is projected to be flat at $7.8 billion in 2005; to grow by 17.2 percent to $9.1 billion in 2006; to grow by 19.3 percent to $10.9 billion in 2007; and to grow by 20.2 percent to $13.1 billion in 2008. DRAM: The DRAM market was $26.8 billion in 2004. This market is projected to decline by 4.8 percent to $25.6 billion in 2005; to decline by 10.1 percent to $23 billion in 2006; to grow by 13.1 percent to $26.0 billion in 2007; and to grow by 20.0 percent to $31.2 billion in 2008. Flash: The flash memory market was $15.6 billion in 2004. This market is projected to grow by 16.1 percent to $18.1 billion in 2005; to grow by 15.9 percent to $21.0 billion in 2006; to grow by 4.7 percent to $22.0 billion in 2007; and to grow by 13.7 percent to $25.0 billion in 2008. Annual forecast of global semiconductor sales Publ 20051116

Friday, October 14, 2005

IPTV could give incumbent US telcos the lead in triple play

Analysis: IPTV (Internet Protocol Television) technology may give incumbent US telcos the chance to take the lead in triple play Currently, the cable operators have the first-mover advantage in triple play. Successfully exploiting the capabilities of IPTV – such as interactivity and a potentially unlimited selection of channels – could stem the tide while yielding increased revenue, higher ARPU and lower churn for incumbent US telcos. However, a number of important uncertainties remain that will impact the success of telco IPTV.

Incumbent telcos see IPTV-based triple play as a way to counterattack in the face of competitive pressures from mobile and broadband technologies, cableco triple-play offerings and falling revenues from traditional telephony. But, in this report, Analysys goes beyond the industry hype and takes a close look at the business and technological realities behind IPTV. US cable operators have well-established video and broadband services, and over 73 million TV subscribers, generating revenues of nearly 60 billion dollars per annum. With such formidable competition, incumbent telcos will need to execute strong business cases if they are to succeed with this new technology.

Using switched-video technology, IPTV can support scheduled programming, video on demand and, unlike cable TV, a practically unlimited number of TV channels and video content. In addition, IPTV could enable a range of interactive features – allowing viewers, for example, to change the camera angle during a TV programme or purchase products shown in a TV programme by using Web-browsing functions built into the TV programming itself.

However, there are potential obstacles to IPTV deployment. The regulatory climate, cablecos’ reaction and telcos’ ability to gain access to compelling content are among the variables that will determine the future of telco IPTV in the US market. “Despite the strong arguments for telco IPTV several issues could affect implementations and weaken the IPTV business case for incumbent US telcos.” It also remains to be seen whether IPTV will generate real interest among advertisers and stimulate significant mass-market appeal.

  • Incumbent US telcos see IPTV as a means to regain the revenue and market share that have been eroded by competition from mobile services, broadband technologies and cableco triple-play offerings.

  • Unlike cable TV, IPTV supports a virtually unlimited number of TV channels and enables a range of new interactive features.

  • Ultimately, a number of variables – such as regulation, technology and content access – could prove obstacles to IPTV deployment for incumbent telcos.

IPTV: a breakthrough for US telcos? Publ. 20051114

Wednesday, October 12, 2005

India Mobile Gamng Market Is On Track to Expand 700% by 2010

Pyramid Research: survey of mobile phone users across the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries and the U.K., India ranked as the top mobile game market. Of the 355 respondents in India that identified themselves as mobile data users, 32% said that they play mobile games monthly, exceeding the UK mark of 15%. Almost a third of Indian mobile data users were restricted from mobile gaming by a lack of sophisticated handset availability. Handsets lag behind users’ desire for data capabilities; 94% of mobile handsets in India operate on either GSM or CDMA One standards, both with minimal data capabilities. With the rollout of new handsets and networks, the mobile gaming market could expand 700% by 2010. Also noteworthy is the level of traction that occurs with India’s mobile gamers. Respondents from other countries that tried mobile gaming just once ranged between 8% and 20%; in India this figure stands at 3.9%.This indicates that subscribers in India are far more enthusiastic about mobile gaming than subscribers surveyed elsewhere and once they have tried it, they tend to get hooked. It would be wise for manufacturers and carriers to focus attention on handsets specifically designed for gaming and on the development of gaming content, particularly if it is custom-made for the Indian market. Survey of mobile phone users across the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) Publ. 20051012 mobile games? Wikipedia Answers

Tuesday, October 11, 2005

Business Gateway Market Will Take Off In 2007

In-Stat : The market for multi-service Business Gateway equipment will ramp-up beginning in 2007. By 2007, service providers will offer bundled service offerings that include Business Gateway devices for SMB and branch office markets, a development prized by customers. A Business Gateway is a next-generation networking device designed specifically to perform multiple primary functions in contrast to the plethora of multi-service devices that remain optimized for a single function or application. Field trials of new Business Gateway products will continue through the remainder of 2005 and most of 2006t. Our survey data shows that Business Gateway buying decisions will be driven more by datacomm device replacement than by PBX replacement.

  • North America will be the largest geographic market, with approximately 43% of total Business Gateway shipments in 2007, followed by Europe with a 33% share of the market.

  • Respondents to an In-Stat survey clearly indicated a preference towards multi-service devices and a bundle of services supplied by a single service provider.

  • The migration to VoIP may also prompt the equipment buying decision, but currently, small and medium businesses and small enterprises do not have plans for full VoIP deployment.

SMBs and Branch Office Markets Prefer Multi-Service Business Gateways! Publ. 20051011

Battle for User Experience Will Determine War for Consumer Mindshare

TDG: As the cable TV industry, consumer electronics manufacturers, and content providers prepare for Digital Cable Ready devices, a battle will be waged over who controls the user experience.

  • Cable operators hope to eliminate the expense of subsidizing digital set-top boxes, but are determined to maintain control over the user interface, and even reach beyond the television into the home's network;

  • Consumer electronics manufacturers are hoping to wrest control away from the set top box through the sale of DCR-enabled TVs and DVRs, and are reluctant to grant cable operators exclusive license to the user interface; and

  • Content providers, advertisers and programmers are hoping interactivity will measurably improve their control of user experience, while the viewer finds new ways to thwart traditional content funding models.

In all three of these cases, the goal is controlling the user experience - starting with the menu through which consumers will view content options, identify and navigate between programs, and control their viewing experience. As more digital electronics find their way into consumer homes, and as more of these devices become connected to one another, the value of a single easy-to-use interface that allows control of multiple content sources becomes more important to both consumers and vendors. The Transition to Digital Cable Ready: Analysis & Forecasts, DVR? Wikipedia Red Viking Publ. 20051011

Monday, October 10, 2005

Incumbent Telcos Set To Win Europe’s Consumer VoIP War

Forrester: What’s The Hype About? Only 1% Of Europeans Use VoIP Frequently To Make Calls From Home. According to industry hype, voice over IP (VoIP) pure plays like Skype and Vonage are on the verge of transforming and taking over the telecom industry. That pure plays have no chance of dethroning proactive European incumbent telcos from their consumer fixed voice market leadership. VoIP pure plays will fail to survive as independent companies because they don’t offer a truly disruptive and transformational service — and they lack key advantages that the incumbents have. Telcos like British Telecom and France Télécom can continue to dominate future voice markets as long as they maintain their proactive and innovative VoIP response strategies.

VoIP adoption will certainly help trigger sweeping changes in voice pricing models across the industry. However, that will most likely not lead to the major industry disruptions foreseen by VoIP pure play proponents — at least not on the retail side of the business. The consumer VoIP hype as wild exaggerations, reminiscent of the UMTS hype, dot-com, and telecom bubble days. The ‘no free lunch’ principle applies: Someone will always bear the costs of delivering the service. Voice calls will never be absolutely free, but the hype — and the pure plays — do teach some important lessons. To avoid the predicted upcoming telecom power shift, incumbent telcos must fully wake up and restructure their business, including their innovation activities..

It doesn’t help much if a new technology is very disruptive in a market that will remain rather small for years to come. VoIP isn’t really mature today. It faces a range of problems, including immature SIP technology, unresolved regulatory issues, and a lack of industrial-strength and scalable public network management systems. Consumer apathy and slow broadband uptake will also hold VoIP back. Only 1% of Europeans use VoIP frequently to make calls from home, whereas 70% of consumers doesn’t even know what VoIP is.* Coupled with relatively low broadband take-up, European consumer VoIP adoption will move slowly. Forrester predicts that VoIP will capture 30% of the residential fixed voice market in 2010 and won’t approach 100% until 2020.

In addition, the incumbent telcos are fighting back: Proactive incumbents like Telecom Italia, France Télécom, and Portugal Telecom launched flat-rate PSTN calling even before VoIP pure plays became a threat, reducing VoIP’s threat to their core PSTN business. Since then, a majority of incumbents have introduced various flat-rate pricing plans, further reducing their vulnerability to VoIP pure plays. Smart incumbents are also tearing down technology silos and focusing on user needs, not technology, further undermining VoIP pure plays’ key selling points. And by launching their own VoIP services, ADSL bundles, and enhanced functionality services, incumbents are fighting the pure plays on their own turf.

Lars Godell: “Incumbent Telcos Will Fend Off VoIP Attackers” ,“VoIP Is Still In Its Infancy in Europe, European’s Warm Up To Broadband Triple Play

Publ. 20051010 SIP? Wikipedia Red Viking

Thursday, October 06, 2005

HDTV SALES IN THE U.S. WILL GROW DRAMATICALLY OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS, CONSTITUTING 70% OF ALL TV SALES BY 2010

Jupiter Research Projections of the growth of HDTV and specific display technologies in the American market. HDTV will experience significant growth in the United States over the next five years. By the end of 2004, HDTV sets made up 21% of overall TV sales; that number will rise to 70% of overall TV sales by the end of 2010. Additionally, 63% of U.S. TV households will have an HDTV set by 2010. After a slow start, HDTV is beginning to generate real consumer appeal. We attribute this to the increase availability of HD content as well as the growing number of HD sets available at retail. Consumers traditionally think of TV purchases as a long term investment and are seeking a replacement in the home that has longevity and will work with the future digital TV standards.

Report also addresses the multiple display technologies that support HDTV, dividing them into four categories: Plasma, LCD, Direct-view CRT and Projection. JupiterResearch forecasts LCD flat screens and projection displays will make up the majority of U.S. sales by 2010. With prices dropping, greater prominence in the retail channel and the impact of the FCC's digital tuner mandate on manufacturers, we are forecasting a steady increase in HDTV unit sales over the next five years JupiterResearch. U.S. HDTV Forecast 2005 to 2010: Managing Consumer Perceptions to Gain Market Share Publ. 20051006

Wednesday, October 05, 2005

Wireless Mesh Network Equipment Market Accelerates

In-Stat : The Wireless Mesh Network (WMN) infrastructure equipment market has begun to accelerate. From 2004 through 2009, the market for access points is expected to grow from $33.5 million to $974.3 million . WMNs were developed as a quick way to set-up wireless networks during military operations. The technology makes all radios in a network capable of two-way communication with other radios in the network. Vendors are reporting a sharp increase in both inquiries and Requests For Proposals, enough to make them highly optimistic for the future of the market. They are finding interest from public safety and municipal governments, carriers such as Wireless ISPs, the security market, and for an expanding range of applications.

  • Wi-Fi-based WMNs are being applied as Hot Zones, which cover a broad area, such as a downtown city district.

  • Most WMN equipment vendors are located in North America, and most equipment sales are being completed in North America.

  • WMN is a powerful and potentially disruptive technology. It is already being used to extend the range of Wi-Fi technology, and has the potential to expand and extend the reach of numerous wireless technologies from WiMAX to Ultra-Wideband.

Mesh Networks: Moving From Ad Hoc to Fixed Infrastructure Publ. 20051005

IP Video Service Revenue In Asia Pacific To Grow 80% Per Year

In-Stat : Although still in the early stages of deployment, IP video services in Asia Pacific are ramping up and will grow by nearly 80% annually through 2010, . In-Stat forecasts that by 2010 this market’s revenue will reach US$4.2 billion. China, Japan, India, and South Korea will account for the majority of regional growth. Increasing broadband penetration gives telcos the opportunity to leverage their investment in broadband networks while broadening their service offerings. “But deployment, launch, and marketing strategy specifics are largely still on the drawing board for quite a few carriers.

  • In deregulated markets like Japan and South Korea, telecom companies can offer IPTV and VOD services freely, while in China, incumbent carriers have yet to obtain IPTV licenses to provide such value-added video offerings.

  • “Triple play” strategies encompassing voice, video, and data offerings will soon be the norm for most communication providers in Asia Pacific.

  • The major IP-based video service providers leading the market in the region are expected to include Yahoo!BB, Korea Telecom, Chunghwa Telecom, PCCW, China Telecom, China Netcom, SingTel, and Atlas Interactive India.

Asia Pacific IP-Based Video Services Market Analysis Triple play? Wikipedia Red Viking Publ. 20051005

Tuesday, October 04, 2005

606 million TV households in Asia Pacific by 2010

eMarketer: By 2010, there will be 606 million TV households in the Asia-Pacific region, with China alone likely accounting for more than a third of all TV households worldwide. The television market in the Asia-Pacific region is already the largest in the world. Forty-six percent of the 606 million TV households will view TV via cable, 2.6% via satellite, 1.7% via broadband DSL and 2.7% by digital terrestrial signals. The remaining 47% of TV households will receive their TV via regular analog terrestrial signals. (Informa) By 2005's end, 30 million Asia-Pacific households will access digital TV via cable, satellite or terrestrial signals. This will rise to nearly 170 million households by 2010. Already home to half the world's TV households, the region is on the threshold of a new phase of growth and innovation. Digital technology, industry consolidation and continued economic growth are transforming the TV sector in the Asia-Pacific region.

Countries like Japan and South Korea are already clear on a digital path, accoridng to the report. Within ten years, no analog technology is expected in either country. For countries such as India and China, the path is less straightforward.

Asia-Pacific DTV and Pay-TV Trends Publ. 20051004